On 10 Oct 2018 the Chief Electoral Officer, Karnataka, (CEO-KA) published the draft electoral rolls for 2019. In May 2018 Bangalore had 8,287 polling stations (parts). Since then, with rationalisation of polling stations, 227 new parts are added and now Bangalore has 8,514 polling stations.
English version of the Electoral Rolls are not published for 4 constituencies: Chikpet, Mahadevapura, Bangalore South, and Anekal.
For Voters: Your name may appear in a part different from the one in May 2018. In the past rationalisations there have been cases where names were removed from one part but not added to any other. Check your names in the electoral rolls by searching at CEO’s website to ensure that your name is in the rolls and also to know your polling station and voter serial number. This information is unlikely to change till September/October 2019 as per the recommended practice.
In some sample cases, the voter serial numbers we get on a search query do not match with the ones in electoral rolls. As per ECI policy, the voter database should be frozen before publishing the electoral rolls at CEO website. Now we have a disparity between the database and the voter lists. This indicates that the number of voters in the published electoral rolls are different from what is in the database. Some voters added/deleted from the database are not shown in the PDF electoral rolls.
NVSP continues to be out of sync: National Voters’ [dis]Services Portal has been reporting stale data (about 2 years old) for several years. We get wrong part/polling booth and the voter serial number If we search at NVSP site. In addition, deleted voters may still be in the list and voters added during the past two years won’t be found. Despite repeated requests to either sync the data or to discontinue giving misleading information, the ECI has not cared to act. However, if you find your record at NVSP site, you can be happy that you are two years younger as per ECI.
Do not trust NVSP.
CEO’s False Claim:
In a press note on 10 October 2018, the CEO-KA stated, “House to house visit by the BLOs to identify the dead and shifted electors, repeated entries, eligible persons who are yet to be enrolled as electors and also the persons who would be attaining the age of 18 years as on 1st Jan., 2019 has been completed.”
In my blog post of 15 Aug 2018 I have shown how the above statement is not true. Data on BLOs at CEO-KA website have never been correct. Non-existent BLOs do not verify the electoral rolls. As reported by Whitefield Rising, not a single BLO visit was recorded in Mahadevapura constituency.
I have sample cases of people shown as voters in certain houses who don’t live there for more than five years. BLOs have not identified the shifted voters even if they visited the houses.
In another blog post I had shown how we suspect about 20 lakh spurious entries in the electoral rolls of Bangalore. I have pleaded this case with the CEO-KA and the ECI. There was no response from the authorities, as usual.
Another press note of 10 Oct 2018 states that 1,83,111 voters of Bangalore have been deleted from the roll during the last revision. This still leaves a very large number of illegal entries in the electoral rolls of Bangalore.
Lying with Statistics and Lying about Statistics
The CEO’s press note states, “The projected population of the state as of 2019 based on census figures of 2011 works out to 69149544 and the estimated population aged 18 years and above is 48121635. The EP ratio as per the draft rolls is 72.80”
This makes the population below 18 to be 30.41%. Age Structure And Marital Status page on Census India website states that 41.1% of the population of the country is below 18 years old. It is not possible that Karnataka has such a large variance in the age distribution compared to the whole nation. For this to happen, Karnataka should have had comparatively (a) much smaller birth-rate and or very high infant mortality (b) very long life for the elderly.
Either the census report is wrong or the CEO’s assumptions are wrong. If the census report is wrong, planning and budgeting activities of the country is farce. China’s great famine of 1960 was caused by the government acting on fictitious statistics. India cannot be on that path.
Even if the CEO is correct, his statement still proves a bloat in the electoral rolls. With 69.59% of the population (4,81,21,635 out of 6,91,49,544) being equal or more than 18 years old, the Electors to Population (EP) ratio can be 69.59 if every eligible citizen is enrolled as a voter. The CEO claims an EP ratio of 72.8.
Ironically another press note states that the EP ratio in Bangalore is 65.24. Why such a great variance in Bangalore compared from the state?
Unless we learn the references used and methods adopted to forecast the population, we are not sure of the truth. The numbers are not convincing.